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Gergis and Law Dome

Well so this far and wide

Climate Audit

In today’s post, I’m going to examine Gergis’ dubious screening out of the Law Dome d18O series, a series that has been of long-standing interest at Climate Audit (tag).

Gergis et al 2016 stated that they screened proxies according to significance of the correlation to local gridcell temperature. Law Dome d18O not only had a significant correlation to local temperature, but had a higher t-statistic (and correlation) to local instrumental temperature than:

  • 24 of the 28 proxies retained by Gergis in her screened network;
  • either of the other two long proxies (Mt Read, Oroko Swamp tree ring chronologies);

Nonetheless,  the Law Dome d18O series was excluded from the Gergis et al network. Gergis effected her exclusion of Law Dome not because of deficient temperature correlation, but through an additional arbitrary screening criterion, which excluded Law Dome d18O, but no other proxy in the screened network.

This is not the first occasion in which…

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Project Fear From Lord Krebs

What can I say about lieing

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/12/killer-heatwaves-to-become-commonplace-within-30-years-thanks-to/

The Telegraph reports (and it’s not even little Emily!):

Heatwaves fierce enough to kill thousands will become the norm in the UK within 30 years due to climate change, a report prepared for the Government warns.

Repeats of the extreme heat seen in 2003 that killed more than 2,000 people are likely to become routine by the 2040s, leaving the ageing population at particular risk.

The Committee on Climate Change, an independent body that advises the Government, said people living in newer homes faced a greater risk of overheating than those in older properties.

The new analysis also found that the potential for future floods put the viability of some conurbations under threat.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/12/killer-heatwaves-to-become-commonplace-within-30-years-thanks-to/

Project Fear is alive and kicking!!

The report they are referring to is the Committee on Climate Change’s UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017, produced by the Adaptation Sub-Committee, chaired…

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NSIDC Busted!

Thanks once again Tony

Real Science

Reader Chris71 has discovered the smoking gun on the NSIDC web site. Read on.

A few weeks ago, NSIDC put out this press release, claiming that 5+ year old ice is at its smallest level on record.

ice at least 5 years or older, is at its smallest level in the satellite record, representing only 3 percent of the total ice cover

2016-04-22061634

The press release included the map below. This is a new style map which they just started in week 39 2015. The map below is for week 41 2015. All of their previous  1984-2015 maps have been deleted from their archive.

iceage_browse_week_n_2015_41

March ends a most interesting winter | Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis

The good news is that Chris found one of their old style maps which had not been scrubbed from their website, and is annotated with the following text.

This graph is reloaded from ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age${year}_${month}.gif every day and is available…

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The Great Pause lengthens again

This should be spread everywhere THX Lord Monckton

Watts Up With That?

Global temperature update: the Pause is now 18 years 3 months

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Since October 1996 there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). This month’s RSS [1] temperature plot pushes up the period without any global warming from 18 years 2 months to 18 years 3 months.

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Figure 1. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 18 years 3 months since October 1996.

The hiatus period of 18 years 3 months, or 219 months, is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend.

As the Pope unwisely prepares to abandon forever the political neutrality that his office enjoins upon him, and to put his signature to a climate-Communist encyclical largely drafted by the radical Prefect of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences…

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Oral Argument 2: EPA on “Fraud” Allegations

Thank you for a great start to 2015 Steve Happy New Year from one Canuk to the other here’s to a great year for friends and Family ;>)

Climate Audit

Towards the end of Carvin’s mostly cringeworthy rebuttal,  he seemed to score on EPA’s rejection of complaints against Mann’s own defamatory accusations of “scientific fraud”.  EPA had found that Mann’s use of the term “fraud” meant no more than he believed the articles to be “scientifically flawed” and that, in such circumstances, Mann’s language was “appropriate”.  That Carvin brought this point up at all, after omitting it in his written brief and after mangling his rebuttal remarks on falsification and email deletion so badly, was a small miracle, but he managed to draw the judges’ attention to the issue and it’s one that seems to me to be a very big obstacle to Mann’s case.

The defendants had, of course, been long familiar with Mann’s own repeated defamatory statements, including accusations of “fraud”, but, if the Court is expected to show deference to EPA on scientific matters, EPA’s finding on the…

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Polar bear habitat – more Arctic sea ice in Canada this week than in early 1970s

Facts and real Data trump Models every time ;>)

polarbearscience

This week, Arctic sea ice in Canada, where 2/3 of the world’s polar bears live, had more sea ice than was present in the early 1970s. Globally, the ice is spitting-distance close to the 1981-2010 average calculated by the NSIDC for this date – which means lots of winter/spring hunting habitat for polar bears.

Canada sea ice freeze-up_same week_Dec 25 1971_2014 standard average

This is the peak of the polar bear birthing season (both in the wild and in zoos.) Newborns will be snug in maternity dens built by their mothers onshore or on the sea ice; the rest of the population will be out on the ice.

Sea ice extent 2014 Dec 25 NSIDC

Regional ice charts going back to the late 1960s and early 1970s for this week show even more surprises — have a look.


First, here’s today’s ice map (26 December 2014) published by the Canadian Ice Service. Click on any of the maps or charts below to enlarge.

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